Data Sources & Methodology
All data on this dashboard is sourced from publicly available Australian government databases, industry publications, and maritime tracking systems.
Fuel Stock & Security
DCCEEW Minimum Stockholding Obligation (MSO)
Weekly days of cover for petrol, diesel, and kerosene (jet fuel), as reported by regulated entities to the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water. dcceew.gov.au
DCCEEW Crisis Instruments
Monitoring for active Fuel Security (Temporary Reduction) Instruments published by DCCEEW. dcceew.gov.au
Australian Petroleum Statistics
Monthly fuel consumption data (petrol, diesel, jet fuel) published by the Department of Industry, Science and Resources. energy.gov.au
Fuel Prices
AIP Terminal Gate Prices
Wholesale fuel prices at the terminal gate for petrol and diesel across 7 Australian capital cities, published by the Australian Institute of Petroleum. aip.com.au
NSW FuelCheck
Retail fuel prices across New South Wales, published by the NSW Government. api.nsw.gov.au
FuelWatch WA
Retail fuel prices in Perth and regional Western Australia, published by the WA Department of Mines, Industry Regulation and Safety. fuelwatch.wa.gov.au
QLD Fuel Prices
Retail fuel prices in Queensland, published by the Queensland Government. fuelpricesqld.com.au
Brent Crude Oil (FRED)
Daily Brent crude oil spot prices from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database. fred.stlouisfed.org
Vessel Tracking
AIS (Automatic Identification System)
Real-time vessel position, speed, heading, and destination data broadcast by tanker vessels in the Indo-Pacific region heading to Australian ports. Filtered to tanker types (AIS codes 80–89) within the Australian maritime zone.
Port Authority Schedules
Scheduled vessel arrivals from 7 Australian port systems: NSW Ports, Ports Victoria, QShips QLD, Fremantle, Flinders (SA), Darwin, and TasPorts.
Vessel Enrichment
Vessel particulars (type, deadweight tonnage, dimensions) and port call history used to verify arrivals and classify cargo type.
News & Other
Google News
Australian fuel security and energy news articles aggregated from major news outlets. news.google.com
Fuel Estimate Methodology
Please note: Figures are modelled estimates only, and may differ from official government reported figures from time to time.
Our approach is to model real-time stock estimates based on several known factors, including depletion since the last known MSO observation and shipment data.
1. Baseline
Our model is periodically updated with official data. Regulated entities report weekly stocks held as of Tuesday to DCCEEW by Friday. Aggregate statistics are published each Saturday. We convert reported days of cover into megalitres: stockML = msoDays × dailyConsumption
2. Daily Stock Change Estimation
For each day since the observation, we model:
3. Panic Buying Estimation
Panic buying is shown to be associated with major supply disruption. As imports drop and the number of vendors reported as out of stock increases, panic buying rates can increase. The reinforcement loop has been observed in multiple fuel crises (UK 2021, Australia 2026; see also Liquid Fuel Security Review Final Report, 2020, Appendix A).
Panic buying estimates (guide):
4. Import Disruption
Australia imports ~80% of its refined fuel. However, given the length of the supply chain, there is a significant lag to the disruption. These lag effects add uncertainty to fuel shipments landing at an Australian port, with greater opportunity for turnarounds.
5. Distribution Loss (10%)
Not all reported stock that lands is available for distribution. Tank bottoms, pipeline fill, minimum operating levels, and regional storage constraints mean approximately 10% of reported stock is lost, or operationally inaccessible. Energy analyst Saul Kavonic confirms that: “stock levels are not representative of fuel available for immediate distribution.”
6. On-The-Water Supply (OTWS)
Fuel on confirmed AU-bound tankers (via live AIS tracking) is shown separately as “in transit” — it is not added to the headline number because it has not arrived and is not available for distribution.
MSO reduction: On 13 March 2026, the government released up to 20% of the baseline MSO for petrol and diesel to address localised supply disruption. Our model uses the reduced MSO floor (855 ML petrol, 2,197 ML diesel; kerosene unchanged at 663 ML). Source: Minister Bowen — More fuel for regional Australians.
Geelong refinery adjustment: Following the fire at Viva Energy’s Geelong refinery on 15 April 2026, domestic refining estimates have been adjusted to reflect reduced output: petrol at 60%, diesel and aviation fuel at 80% of normal capacity. Source: Prime Minister’s press conference, Viva Refinery Geelong.
Sources: MSO from DCCEEW Power BI (weekly Saturdays). Consumption from Australian Petroleum Statistics (monthly). Domestic refining: Ampol Lytton + Viva Geelong output data. Vessel tracking: live AIS feed.
Vessel Tracking Methodology
Data Sources
Vessels are tracked from two primary sources: AIS (Automatic Identification System), which provides real-time position, speed, heading, and destination data broadcast by vessels themselves; and port authority schedules from NSW Ports, Ports Victoria, QShips QLD, Fremantle, Flinders (SA), Darwin, and TasPorts, which provide forward-looking arrival schedules.
Vessel Identification
Only tanker-class vessels are tracked. We filter for AIS ship type codes 80–89 (tankers) and exclude gas carriers (LNG, LPG, GASCHEM) via name pattern matching and ship type codes 70–79. Each vessel is identified by its unique MMSI (Maritime Mobile Service Identity). Where available, IMO numbers are cross-referenced for enrichment.
Fuel Type Classification
Fuel type is determined through a classification cascade, in order of confidence:
- Port scraper vessel type — e.g. “Oil Products Tanker”, “Crude Oil Tanker” (highest confidence, verified)
- Berth assignment — specific fuel terminal berths (e.g. Bulk Liquid Berth, Kurnell, refinery jetties)
- Origin port — crude origins (Fujairah, Ras Tanura) vs product origins (Singapore, Ulsan)
- AIS ship type code — types 81–84 (hazardous/crude), 80/85–89 (generic/products)
- Vessel name keywords — e.g. “diesel”, “jet”, “aviation” (lowest confidence)
Product Tanker Cargo Split
Generic tankers (AIS type 80) and product tankers (type 85–89) carry mixed refined fuel. Without cargo manifest data (which is not publicly available), their cargo is split proportionally based on Australian Petroleum Statistics import mix: 58% diesel, 21% petrol, 16% jet fuel, 5% other. This is a national average and may not reflect individual vessel loads.
Cargo Volume Estimation
Cargo volume is estimated from AIS-reported vessel dimensions (length × beam) using a cubic number approximation for laden tankers. Where available, known DWT (deadweight tonnage) from vessel databases is used instead for higher accuracy. Cargo manifests are not publicly accessible in Australia.
Destination Confidence
Potential Diversions
A vessel is flagged as a potential diversion only when there is positive evidence: its AIS destination changes from an Australian port to a non-Australian port while the vessel is more than 200km from the Australian port. Vessels that arrive at an Australian port and then depart for their next destination are not counted as diversions. Vessels that go quiet on AIS (transponder off, coverage gap, or arrived at port) are not assumed to be diverted. Potential diversions may reflect commercial rerouting, schedule changes, or data corrections — not necessarily supply disruptions.
Distance & Route Calculation
Distance to port is calculated using the haversine (great circle) formula with route correction factors applied per transit zone. Vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, Singapore Strait, or Indonesian passages have correction factors of 1.15–1.25× applied to account for actual maritime routing vs straight-line distance. Routes displayed on the map are interpolated great circle arcs routed through key maritime waypoints (Lombok Strait, Bass Strait, Cape Leeuwin) to approximate realistic shipping lanes.
Limitations
Cargo type and volume are estimated, not confirmed — cargo manifests are not publicly available in Australia. AIS data can be delayed, incomplete, or in rare cases spoofed. Port schedules may change without notice. Vessel dimensions in AIS can be inaccurate or missing. The product tanker cargo split is a national average and may not reflect individual vessel loads. Vessels not broadcasting AIS (transponder off, out of range) will not appear. Scheduled vessels from port authorities may not materialise if bookings are cancelled. Vessel tracking uses terrestrial AIS receivers via AISStream — satellite AIS is not used. As a result, vessel positions in deep ocean may have gaps, and routes displayed on the map between known positions are estimated maritime routes, not actual tracked paths. Shipping lane routing is based on Benden, P. (2022). Global Shipping Lanes [Data set], derived from the CIA’s georeferenced “Map of The World’s Oceans” (October 2012). Available under CC BY 4.0 licence.